Econometrics Forecasting by Fuad Mammadov

About the training

#very practical   #real world problems   #user-friendly software

In this course, you will learn to predict a firm-level (as well as macro, financial) variables such as sales, revenues, liabilities, and assets, and to create statistical models and use them to estimate responses to marketing campaigns, economic policies, and other similar events. This course gives a rigorous foundation in the estimation of econometric models and their application for forecasting and event analysis in banks, firms, ministries, and other public and private organizations. You will learn from hands-on demonstrations of model-building, forecasting, and event analysis, using data sets from a wide variety of sources. Practical exercises and applications will be conducted using EViews—a popular software for estimating and simulating forecasting models on Windows. The training is based on five major aspects of empirical modeling and forecasting. Initially, the statistical characteristics of economic indicators are analyzed. Then the methodology is selected and compiled according to the nature of the indicators. Using the chosen method we will evaluate the model and carry our scenario analyzes. Finally, we will discuss the results and examine the forecasting error. The acquired knowledge will help you to answer the following questions:

• What are the sales projections for next month?

• What are the factors that influence the effectiveness of employees?

• How do marketing or advertising campaigns affect the company's profitability?

• Credit risk stress testing: How will the bank credit portfolio behave to unexpected exchange rate shock? What are the factors affecting the probability of default?

• How will sales and revenues change if prices increase by one percentage point?

• Which of the two financial assets is more profitable?

• Which factors determine the demand for real estate?